Gold Mining Stocks May Benefit from Elevated Profitability at Current Gold Prices | Silver & Gold Playbook
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Gold Mining Stocks May Benefit from Elevated Profitability at Current Gold Prices

Gold Mining Operations
Sector reports record margins exceeding $2,100 per ounce as major producers see shares climb 42-99% year-to-date, though valuations remain below historical peaks
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Editor's Note

As we analyze the current state of gold mining stocks, it's important to note that market conditions can change rapidly. While the sector appears to be experiencing strong profitability at current gold prices, investors should carefully consider their own risk tolerance and conduct thorough due diligence before making any investment decisions. The information presented here is based on recent market data and analyst reports, but past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Trusted Partner Presentation

Why Are Famous Billionaires Buying This Gold Miner?

Gold Mining Investment

Gold legends-Eric Sprott, Goldcorp founder Rob McEwen, and Kinross founder Bob Buchan-each own a sizable stake in a small Nevada gold miner.

Why?

Because it's already producing gold, has major infrastructure in place, and sits in one of the world's top gold mining regions.

When billionaires get in early, there's a reason.

See why these gold giants are backing a company still trading under $1

Gold mining companies are reporting what industry analysts describe as potentially the most profitable quarter in modern mining history, with profit margins exceeding $2,100 per ounce as gold trades near $3,670 in mid-September 2025, according to market data and company filings.

The sector's financial performance has translated into substantial equity gains, with major North American gold producers reporting year-to-date returns between 42% and 99%, while select junior mining stocks have posted gains exceeding 800%, according to market data compiled from NYSE and TSX exchanges.

Despite these gains, valuations for many gold mining companies remain 50-70% below historical peak multiples reached during previous bull markets, creating what several Wall Street firms characterize as a potential opportunity for investors, though past performance does not guarantee future results.

Major producers report record quarterly cash flows

Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM), the world's largest gold producer, reported second-quarter free cash flow that the company states reached $1.7 billion, marking what executives called a "transformational quarter" during recent earnings calls. The Colorado-based miner's shares have gained approximately 42-56% year-to-date, trading near 52-week highs around $80 per share.

Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: GOLD) reported free cash flow of $770 million in the first half of 2025, enabling the Toronto-based company to execute $411 million in share buybacks from its board-authorized $1 billion program, according to company filings. The stock has risen 75-80% year-to-date despite trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.84x, which RBC Capital Markets notes is approximately 15% below industry averages.

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE: AEM) achieved what the company describes as a net cash position after generating $1.3 billion in quarterly free cash flow and record EBITDA of $1.9 billion, according to its latest quarterly report. The company's shares have approached all-time highs near $154, representing a 99% year-to-date gain through mid-September.

"We're seeing operational leverage at work," said Chris Griffith, CEO of Gold Fields, in a recent industry conference. "Every $100 increase in gold price at these levels flows almost directly to the bottom line."

ETF performance reflects sector momentum

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) has surged approximately 98-106% year-to-date, reaching $67-70 per share with assets under management of $19.84 billion, according to VanEck data. The fund will transition from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index on September 19, 2025, potentially affecting portfolio composition.

Despite strong performance, GDX has experienced $4.01 billion in net redemptions over the past year, suggesting institutional profit-taking, according to fund flow data from Morningstar Direct.

The VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) has outperformed its larger counterpart with 110.80% returns year-to-date, though it has also seen outflows of $1.56 billion, according to ETF.com data.

Rising costs offset by exceptional gold prices

Industry-wide all-in sustaining costs (AISC) have risen to an average of $1,424-1,536 per ounce globally, up 10-11% year-over-year, according to data from the World Gold Council and Metals Focus. However, with gold prices averaging $3,656-3,674 in September 2025, miners are achieving gross margins of approximately 58-61%.

Regional cost variations show South American operations maintaining the lowest average AISC at approximately $1,197 per ounce, while North American mines face higher costs averaging $1,508 per ounce, driven by labor inflation of 8.1% annually and energy cost increases of 15-22%, according to industry reports.

"This sustained profit growth is unprecedented in the sector's recent history," notes Adam Hamilton of Zeal Intelligence, a precious metals research firm.

Wall Street raises targets as institutions adjust positions

RBC Capital Markets raised its 2025 gold forecast to $3,267 per ounce and upgraded Newmont to "Outperform" with a $95 target, representing potential 20% upside from current levels, according to a research note dated September 10.

Goldman Sachs projects gold could reach $3,700 by year-end 2025, citing Federal Reserve policy expectations and continued central bank buying, particularly from emerging markets.

Options activity in GDX shows call volume in the 90th annual percentile with over 128,000 contracts exchanged daily, while put volume at 1.7 times expected levels indicates active hedging, according to data from the Chicago Board Options Exchange.

Another important presentation from our Trusted Partners:
Trusted Partner Presentation

This Gold Miner's Next Move Could Be a Game-Changer

Gold Mining Investment

A small-cap Nevada gold miner is already producing and has expansion in sight-backed by an onsite refinery and a $6 billion gold asset it's just starting to tap.

But that's not all.

One of gold's most legendary investors recently doubled his stake in the company.

He's not alone.

And if the expansion hits, this could be the moment retail investors wish they had watched more closely.

Find out what's behind the growing buzz.

Consolidation wave reshapes competitive landscape

The sector has announced over $5 billion in merger and acquisition transactions in 2025, headlined by Equinox Gold's $1.87 billion all-share acquisition of Calibre Mining, creating what the companies describe as Canada's second-largest gold producer with expected combined production of 950,000 ounces annually.

Northern Star Resources completed a $3.25 billion acquisition of De Grey Mining at a 37.1% premium, securing the Hemi gold project in Western Australia with 11.2 million ounces of resources, according to company announcements.

Barrick Gold's $1.09 billion sale of its Hemlo mine to Carcetti Capital demonstrates what the company calls "portfolio high-grading," with the transaction including $875 million cash plus contingent payments up to $165 million.

Junior miners attract strategic investment

Junior gold mining companies have delivered some of the sector's most significant returns, though these stocks typically carry higher volatility and risk. Onyx Gold Corp (TSXV: ONYX) leads performers with an 846% gain year-to-date after expanding its Munro-Croesus project in Ontario by 200% to 109 square kilometers, according to company filings.

U.S. Gold Corp (NASDAQ: USAU) gained 149% after receiving full permits for its CK Gold Project in Wyoming, with an updated preliminary feasibility study showing projected annual production of 111,250 gold equivalent ounces over a 10-year mine life.

Strategic investors have taken notice, with Michael Gentile accumulating a 16.76% stake in Solstice Gold, according to regulatory filings, signaling what some analysts interpret as "smart money" confidence in the junior mining sector.

What this could mean for investors

The gold mining sector's current dynamics present what analysts describe as an unusual combination of strong fundamentals and relatively modest valuations compared to historical standards. With price-to-net asset value ratios at 1.5x for senior miners versus historical averages of 2.0x and peak valuations of 3.0x, some analysts suggest the sector may offer value, though valuations alone do not determine future performance.

The sustainability of current profit margins depends heavily on gold prices remaining elevated, which in turn relies on factors including Federal Reserve policy, global economic uncertainty, and central bank gold purchases. Industry executives emphasize that at current gold prices, even a modest correction would leave miners profitable given the substantial margin cushion.

"We're generating cash at levels that allow us to both invest in growth and return significant capital to shareholders," Newmont CEO Tom Palmer stated in the company's latest earnings call.

However, potential investors should consider several risk factors. The sector's historical volatility remains substantial, with gold mining stocks typically exhibiting 2-3 times the volatility of physical gold. Additionally, operational risks including rising input costs, potential labor disputes, and regulatory changes in mining jurisdictions could impact profitability.

For investors seeking exposure to the gold mining sector, analysts suggest considering diversified ETFs like GDX for broad exposure or conducting thorough due diligence on individual miners based on factors including production costs, reserve quality, and jurisdictional risk. The upcoming index change for GDX on September 19 may create short-term volatility but could also present entry opportunities, according to technical analysts.

The September seasonal pattern, which historically shows average declines of 2.7% for gold mining stocks, may provide near-term entry points for investors with longer time horizons, though seasonal patterns are not guaranteed to repeat.

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INVESTMENT DISCLAIMER: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. The information presented is based on publicly available data and reports that may contain errors or become outdated. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Investing in gold mining stocks and ETFs involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Gold prices and mining stock valuations can be extremely volatile and may be affected by numerous factors beyond the control of mining companies. Forward-looking statements in this article are based on current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.

Investment Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investments carry risk of loss, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Sources

  • Market data compiled from NYSE and TSX exchanges
  • Company quarterly reports and earnings calls
  • World Gold Council and Metals Focus data
  • RBC Capital Markets research notes
  • Goldman Sachs commodity research
  • VanEck fund data and announcements
  • Morningstar Direct fund flow data
  • ETF.com performance metrics
  • Chicago Board Options Exchange options data
  • Company regulatory filings and press releases
Trusted Partner

Why Are Famous Billionaires Buying This Gold Miner?

Gold Mining Investment

Gold legends Eric Sprott, Rob McEwen, and Bob Buchan each own a sizable stake in a small Nevada gold miner. It's already producing gold, has major infrastructure in place, and sits in one of the world's top gold mining regions.

See Why They're Backing This Under-$1 Stock
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